: ..
: :
: 109
: -
: 2024
: .. : // . 109. .: , 2024. .170-197. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25728/ubs.2024.109.8
: , , - , , ,
(.): national security, sovereignty, socio-economic development, management, scenario modeling, information support
: . , XX XXI . , - . . . , - , .
(.): The article deals with the analysis of the scenario technology possibilities to solve the problems of long-term scenario forecasting of geopolitical threats to Russia's national security and also to assess the severity of the consequences of the macroeconomic and financial policies implemented by Western countries in relation to our country. A scenario study of social and economic problems caused by Russia's adherence to the Washington Consensus policy at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries was carried out. The results of the Washington Consensus basic provisions analysis, as well as of the essence and modern varieties of neoliberal economic doctrine and their negative impact on the socio-economic development of Russia are presented. A basic scenario model of the neoliberal economy and its negative impact on ensuring the state sovereignty of Russia has been developed. As a result of model research, a basic scenario for Russian economy and social sphere development under various control influences and external disturbances has been elaborated. The obtained results showed that the use of the developed scenario-forecast research technology allows for a comprehensive proactive analysis of long-term geostrategic decisions of US and its allies subservient to its interests and also, based on the developed scenarios, to assess the seriousness of the relevant threats to the national interests of the Russian Federation and its sovereignty.
PDF
: 323, : 97, : 10.