**:** . .
**:**
**:** 63
**:** -
**:** 2016
**:** . . // . 63. .: , 2016. . 106-128.

** :** , , , , .

** (.):** M.Granovetters model, conformity collective behavior, mob control, large deviations, statistical simulations

**:** [2] , . [13] . , (.. ), , [8]. , . , . , .

** (.):** We develop a collective behavior model proposed in[2]. The model is a generalization of the M.Granovetters conformity threshold behavior model for the case of uncertainty in agents threshold values. We estimate the probability of exit of a system from a given set of states (i.e. in mob excitation) using an asymptotic result derived in [8]. Theoretical estimations of large deviations type are refined using numerical estimations obtained with the help of statistical simulations. Obtained results allow us to estimate stability of excitation prevention in the cases when the probabilities of events are too small for using statistical simulations. We give recommendations on the choice ofparameters which guarantee a given probability threshold ofexit of the system from a given set of states.

PDF -
: 1366, : 512, : 4.