:   . ., . .
:   ,
. :  0421200023\0039
:  39
:  
:  2012
:   . ., . . , / . 39. .: , 2012. .5-36.
:   , , , , , , ,
(.):  technological level, technological level factor, complex technical system, life cycle, arising new technology, forecasteeed values, rate of new technology growth, the moment of transition to new technology
:   () (), , , , .
(.):  We consider the problem of technological level estimation of complex technical systems, which are based on new arising technologies. We characterize the processes of contemporary technology development, survey known methods of choosing the moment of new technology adoption, and explain motivation for new methods elaboration. We suggest the principle of forecasting basic characteristics of a new technology and introduce the novel method for technological level estimation of complex technical systems with arising technologies.

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